Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 2.915289 3.507140 4.170695 4.967113 5.894225 6.936514 8.193961
2025-05-18 1.967334 2.684618 3.577877 4.761326 6.275945 8.136194 10.578811
2025-05-25 1.384395 2.109371 3.097693 4.520389 6.488268 9.082597 12.723136
2025-06-01 1.067627 1.790732 2.856144 4.500667 6.925687 10.311103 15.319594
2025-06-08 0.856803 1.567346 2.689330 4.530273 7.398570 11.601837 18.101144
2025-06-15 0.691726 1.373003 2.520335 4.511060 7.770410 12.757124 20.772963
2025-06-22 0.532565 1.148352 2.254540 4.282693 7.767410 13.324316 22.592353
2025-06-29 0.438812 1.020015 2.126286 4.255867 8.072002 14.378485 25.233206
2025-07-06 0.363981 0.910099 2.009000 4.224349 8.353572 15.406861 27.903372
2025-07-13 0.334619 0.888771 2.055808 4.498157 9.196387 17.435179 32.368947
2025-07-20 0.297144 0.840102 2.038191 4.642380 9.813145 19.120923 36.377704
2025-07-27 0.271602 0.813443 2.061180 4.867903 10.601361 21.165167 41.145905
2025-08-03 0.229812 0.737227 1.966036 4.843132 10.916713 22.410482 44.651743
2025-08-10 0.185123 0.640699 1.806360 4.656184 10.887200 23.017807 47.061800
2025-08-17 0.146569 0.549126 1.639282 4.424555 10.733895 23.369861 49.019730
2025-08-24 0.124752 0.500809 1.570194 4.406749 11.026773 24.602565 52.711300
2025-08-31 0.108214 0.464120 1.524127 4.436336 11.423879 26.069776 56.950255
2025-09-07 0.092476 0.424789 1.462662 4.417650 11.708515 27.327846 60.861954
2025-09-14 0.073214 0.365170 1.329787 4.193513 11.491979 27.526625 62.673965
2025-09-21 0.062443 0.334063 1.274975 4.167198 11.737851 28.717085 66.568722
2025-09-28 0.053203 0.305494 1.221674 4.136265 11.967696 29.887923 70.496155
2025-10-05 0.051205 0.308256 1.271350 4.405070 12.970240 32.826485 78.300289
2025-10-12 0.046866 0.298547 1.277082 4.546672 13.663452 35.121725 84.871699